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  • 惠誉调整株洲城发的评级展望至“稳定”,确认其评级为‘BBB-’
  • 信息来源:     发布时间:2019-10-23 17:31:24    阅读量:
  • 23 Oct 2019 10:45 AM
    Fitch Ratings - Hong Kong - 09-Oct-2019 本文章英文原文最初于2019年10月9日发布于:
    https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10092156
    Fitch Revises Outlook on Zhuzhou City Construction to Stable; Affirms at 'BBB-'
            惠誉评级已将株洲市城市建设发展集团有限公司(株洲城发)的评级展望从“负面”调整为“稳定”。惠誉同时确认株洲城发的长期外币和本币发行人违约评级为‘BBB-’。
            本次评级展望调整是基于,惠誉根据其于2019年9月发布的修改后《全球地方政府和地区政府评级标准》上调了对株洲市政府向株洲城发提供支持的预期。
            株洲城发在株洲市从事城市基础设施建设并提供公用事业和交通服务。该公司由株洲市人民政府国有资产监督管理委员会(株洲市国资委)全资拥有。
            惠誉同时确认株洲城发票息率2.98%的3亿美元高级无抵押债券及票息率5.70%的4亿美元高级无抵押债券的评级为‘BBB-’。上述债券由株洲城发直接发行,构成该公司的直接、无条件、无抵押债务,与该公司所有其他债务处于同等受偿顺序。
    关键评级驱动因素
            法律地位及政府持股和控制程度为“很强”:株洲城发最终由株洲市政府拥有,其运营和投融资活动完全受政府管控,因此其业务发展方向紧密跟随株洲市的城市发展蓝图;其高管也由政府任命。
            政府以往支持和预期支持力度为“强”:株洲市政府一直以注资、补助、补贴和地方政府债务置换的方式向株洲城发提供支持。2015年至2018年间株洲城发每年获得补贴3亿到4亿元人民币,约其占年营业额的10%。2018年该公司有31.51亿元人民币的债务被置换成政府债务。此外,2018年末该公司源自株洲市政府下属各部门的应收账款逾75亿元人民币,约占其总资产的10%。鉴于株洲城发的主要业务对株洲市的发展和日常运作至关重要,惠誉预计该公司将继续获得政府大力支持。
            违约带来的社会政治影响为“中等”:株洲城发的主要业务为公用基础设施建设、公共交通及供水相关业务。这些业务活动可以由政府暂时接管,因此株洲城发若陷入财务困境不太可能会导致其业务立即中断。此外,株洲市其他政府相关企业的存在意味着,株洲城发是有可能会被逐渐取代的。但是,鉴于株洲城发经营管理上述业务的经验,该公司若被取代将可能令其业务受到中等程度的扰乱。
            违约带来的融资影响为“很强”:从资产和营业额规模来看,株洲城发是株洲市最大的国有企业之一;该公司也是株洲市从事城市基础设施开发的重要国企,拥有境内外债券市场融资渠道。如果株洲城发陷入财务困境,可能会对株洲市政府及该市其他政府相关企业的融资能力和融资成本产生严重影响。
            独立信用状况为‘b’:株洲城发的独立信用状况受到其业务公共服务性质的制约。鉴于株洲城发缺乏公共服务领域的定价权(尽管在当地占据垄断地位)且依赖政府补贴,惠誉评定该公司的营收稳定性为“较弱”。鉴于已识别的成本动因及该公司与现有供应商之间已建立的关系,惠誉评定该公司的经营风险为“中等”,但该公司将成本增加转嫁给客户的能力有限抵消了上述优势。鉴于株洲城发的调整后净债务与EBITDA之比约为30倍且预计该指标短期内不会下降,惠誉评定该公司的财务状况为“较弱”,但预计政府持续提供的财政支持将对该公司疲弱的独立信用状况起到缓解作用。
    评级敏感性
            如果惠誉关于株洲市政府向株洲城发提供补贴、补助或国家政策法规允许的其他合规资源的能力的看法发生变化,则惠誉可能会调整该公司的评级。
            如果惠誉上调对株洲市政府支持株洲城发的力度或意愿的评估结果,包括上调对政府以往支持力度及该公司若违约将带来的社会政治影响及/或融资影响的评估结果,则惠誉可能会对该公司采取正面评级行动。反之,如果惠誉大幅下调对该公司若违约将带来的社会政治影响和融资影响的评估结果,或下调对政府以往支持力度的评估结果,或政府稀释对该公司的持股,则惠誉可能会下调该公司的评级。
            株洲城发独立信用状况或流动性状况的改善或恶化也会影响其评级。
            株洲城发的发行人违约评级若发生任何变化将导致其债券的评级发生相似幅度的变化。
    联系人:
    首席分析师
    Kelvin Tsui, CFA, FRM
    Senior Director
    +852 2263 9965
    Fitch (Hong Kong) Limited
    19/F Man Yee Building 60-68 Des Voeux Road Central
    Hong Kong
     
    第二分析师
    Jean Luo
    Associate Director
    +852 2263 9952

    评级委员会主席
    Christophe Parisot
    Managing Director
    +33 1 44 29 91 34

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    Hong Kong
    +852 2263 9935
    wailun.wan@thefitchgroup.com
    Alanis Ko
    Hong Kong
    +852 2263 9953
    alanis.ko@thefitchgroup.com
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